Year end

This past year has taught me a lot of things about myself and my place under the sun. I left my work and tried out new things. I was rejected for not being good enough (hello NYU) but continue to dream on (International Max Planck Research Schools) . I went to school again together with my old habits. 

The year is closing. The decade that made me who I am is about to end. Thank you for everything.

Time to reboot

Last week I sold all my current positions and went 100% cash. Why? First of all, I'm tired of getting whipsawed by the market so I locked in my gains, however small they were after the fall from 4400 and wrote off my loss.

As to my "fearless forecast", ACR and ORE hit my targets while JGS and DGTL disappointed me. As for ALI, I'm still bullish about it even if it hits 15, but what it should not cross is its long-term uptrend line since March 2009.

Right now I'm just waiting the market to bottom and I think it will happen this week. Its even starting to happen already. Today's pre-close was very interesting because it was a forced close - and mind you - a coordinated forced close DOWN. This is exactly but opposite of, what happened during September when index issues ALI and SM were being closed too high. Today, DBP-Daiwa (and Deutsche I think) closed ALI, SM, SMPH, JFC, BPI gap down at the last minute! I was tracking SM retracing 530-540-550 then at the close I thought it was a breakout at 575 only to realize it was 475 and the index breached below 4000 when for the entire day it never touched 4000. Tomorrow will easily be an up day and if we cross 4100 by Friday, I think we have found bottom.

My current positions are very small: a few CEB while waiting for it to break out of the triangle, some MUSX and SOC for speculation. I'll pick up ALI once I have confirmed its third and lowest bottom and its triple bullish divergence is still intact. I think I'll also get some DGTL once it has confirmed that it won't breach its shallow uptrend line since December 2008. Lastly, I'm getting ACR as close to 1.40 as possible.

This is not yet over.

Bloody week

What a week so far. I'm effin sick and I don't know yet what it is! I feel tired even if I've been in bed the whole day. My back legs, arms and eyes hurt and I'm having an on-and-off fever. It could be Dengue fever but I haven't had my platelets counted yet. I did go to the doctor (at midnight at that!) to get a diagnosis and he does suspect Dengue or perhaps just a flu.

The stock market isn't helping my pain either. The market ate 8k of my trading account and still wanted more. Right now I'm looking at 5 stocks that despite the downpour and the slaughtering held on quite well.

I'm almost certain that JGS will start trending up after this correction since CEB, which has been pulling it down recently, is taxiing towards a second takeoff from 125. DGTL also didn't fall and this is just begging for your attention. I think we are just waiting for Q3 report before any big move.

Two speculative stocks I'm watching are ACR and ORE. Right now I think ACR is ripe for a move after consolidating for a while at 1.38-1.48 especially as its defacto jockey HDI has been supporting prices. Lastly ORE will soon be shipping its first nickel ores not to mention the November 22 debut of Nickel Asia.  I think this is just what it needs to drive it up past its 3.95 resistance.

However, for all of these to come true, I believe we have to bounce off the 4188 support tomorrow. We already saw an intraday bounce today. Good luck to all of us.

Short-term fearless forecast:
JGS: 30
DGTL: 1.80
ALI: 19
ACR: 1.60
ORE: 4.00

On the cusp

Today I repeated my most common and most stupid mistake I commit during trading hours - impulse selling. I sold JGS down and lost a couple of hundreds just because it was making a loss although it had not crossed my stop yet. Worse still, I knew this fluctuation was just a reaction to CEB sinking even further. Right after selling, it continued to rise and close at 26.00. There is a fine line between being decisive and being impulsive and I usually end up on the wrong side of things.

My current favorite stock ORE did something pretty interesting today. Opening higher than yesterday's close but just duplicated yesterday's high and closing higher but within yesterday's range. Volume is still there. The intraday rise and fall of prices is still consistent from the past few days - rises steeply from opening to about 10:00 then prices slowly retrace to an intraday trough near 11:00 and then prices try to go up again but are unable to meet the high for the day. I find this pattern very interesting. Is this because of the jockey of this stock? I find its movement interesting because I have seen this before in another JAP stock... (guess what). The exact same candle formation, similar MACD momentum... heck even the resistance price is the same! 

I think tomorrow and Friday will be critical days for ORE. Right now, it is on the cusp of 4.00. Given its usual volatility, it should close at least at 4.00 tomorrow. If I am to base its movement on the other JAP stock, it would open at 3.90 and breach 4.00 intraday. What would be critical is closing on or above that resistance with convincing volume, perhaps greater than 20M? The only difference between then and now will be the expected QE announcement by the Fed and the possible movement in metal prices. Right now I'm of the belief that this will breach 4.00 but will not close the week at 4.00. Maybe this will retrace its trough at 3.65-3.70 until its next move that will coincide with the Nickel Asia IPO. This stock likes to test its resistance first before breaking it. I just hope today isn't already the short-term peak of this stock!

Another stock on the cusp is FLI. I thought it would break its 1.48 resistance after reaching 1.49 but action immediately fizzled out and it slowly went back down to its open at 1.46 and then closed unchanged from yesterday at 1.44. I'm not sure what to make of this candle pattern. It looks like a shooting star with an upthrust at resistance but I'm not sure because MACDH just went positive and MACD lines met today while Stochastic also crossed today. Perhaps my position in FLI is clouding my chart interpretations under the guise of "conflicting signals."

Anyway, we'll see tomorrow what to make of these.

Once in a blue moon

I forgot to continue my trading diary last night because finishing Angry Birds is more engrossing than blogging. I got to unlock every level already after snatching one of those golden eggs. Right now I'm on the third part of the game with this new type of bird that can boomerang back. But since games on the iPad don't make me any money, trading is still more interesting.

Today I repositioned my portfolio again. I lightened on ACR and ORE and bought some blue chips. It seems that small caps are out and the action is returning to big caps again. I'm guessing this is in preparation for Q3 earnings reports this November. A lot of stocks' momentums have retreated from their stupendous September acceleration and are about to cross up and give a MACD buy signal. Right now I'm watching BDO, EDC, FGEN, MBT, PNB and JGS.

Of these MBT has already crossed after the rally from support. Since MBT seems to follow stoch overbought/oversold, I'd probably enter at 75 or when it is near stoch is near 20. Banks seems to be in play again because BPI, BDO and PNB have joined the party too. Like the property sector, bank stocks seem to rise together. Another stock I'm watching and which I recently bought is PNB.

PNB is interesting because it is about to challenge its recent high. It's interesting because we could either see a breakout and a new high or a cup-and-handle formation that retraces before moving up further. Or we could just see it fail. Right now I'm not sure what the latest candle is supposed to be telling me and I'm also concerned that volume has not been as strong as the first run. I think tomorrow is a crucial day for this stock. Let's see.

BPI and BDO seem ready to go up again but their MACD cross has been less steep that MBT or PNB hence their momentum is still suspect. As for FGEN, I'm not sure whether the current rise is because of something or it's still trading sideways. MACD is looking good though and maybe a breakout from 14 with high volume will be the time to buy.

Lastly the most interesting play brewing I think is JGS.

Why? Well first it's going to be an index stock this November. Second, the CEB IPO is still a developing story and I think despite the lukewarm reception (its down to 125 today), its going to be big. Third, DGTL as a recovery play especially with Sun Cellular. Lastly, its technicals seem to be very enticing. MACD crossing up, stoch crossing up, tall white candle, heavy volume and about to retest its high. I just noticed this today and bought some and probably I'll be adding if it goes up and volume tomorrow is as high or higher.

I hope November will be as exciting and profitable as September!

Trading diary

Beginning today, I'll be writing down my thoughts and two cents regarding the market and some stocks I'm following. I've always wanted to write down my observations to check later, with the help of hindsight if I called it right or wrong. I mulled on creating a private blog just for this but after thinking this through, I've decided to just write it down here.

The book I read said never to reveal open positions because criticism, constructive or not would lead to second guessing and eventually, that could lead to bad decisions or worse, not making one at all. So don't expect me writing down what I bought, how many and at how much. But I'll probably be disclosing what I bought, sold and what I'm still holding. I'll probably just be sharing what I think on a few stocks I'm following. By the way, since I'm a technical trader, this will be full of charts and signals instead of PE ratios.

When I started, I had a very small trading account and bought three stocks - AP, EDC, FGEN. All power sector and very bullish. My first mistake was getting shaken out because of my 2% loss rule. Since I had a small account, this allowed only to buy in small amounts with adequate slack for a stop or in big quantities but with very little room. If I had the insanity not to follow my money management rule, I would have profited immensely from their previous run: AP from 18 to 26, EDC from 4 to 6, FGEN from 10 to 13. But as I have learned, looking back and pondering your would be profits just makes your decisions worse because it freezes you when you reach that cusp. I have learned that potential profits are just that - potential. Less real that paper profits would ever be to cash, it's no use pondering what could have been. Probably the best thing that came out those few months was my resolve to follow my money management rule. This has allowed me to cut my loss quick (in the case of the recent LC euphoria) and reposition to different stocks. 

These days I have learned to be more adventurous with my trading account. Back then I only traded blue chips that have given a clear MACD cross signal and/or an acceptable Stochastic reading. Now I try to preempt the crossing over signals and buy hoping a big wave is coming. I've also dabbled in small caps and at one point I even began trading companies I didn't even know but had very interesting charts.

Ok this post has gone longer than I expected. It has again started to rain and I have yet to prepare for my class. I'll rant some more later.

Connecting everything

I've finally started to trim my social networks and link them up into a more unified system. The last thing to do is use my Blogger blog as a gateway to my Twitter, Facebook, Tumblr and Flickr networks. That part I'm not sure I've worked out yet (though I'm getting some idea from evhead.com)

Since I've joined the tumblr bandwagon I've been contemplating the use a full blog (Blogger) versus light blogging (tumblr) and microblogging (Twitter). I've come to the conclusion that they are all  different ways of lifestreaming and its best I keep them all. I know that "update" seems not to be part of my vocabulary and I tend to lose focus, but that's why I like to keep my options open.

Do me a favor and add me up in Twitter @kent and at Tumblr kentwait.tumblr.com

It's going to be okay Bastian

For someone who has played in two World Cup semifinals, to have come this close and yet just to fail and see defeat again, it must be a truly agonizing experience. To be someone who also played against the Spain in the Euro 2008 finals, experiencing the same 1-0 loss must be heartbreaking beyond words. 

As I watched Bastian Schweinsteiger pour out his emotions, I felt for him because Germany lost to Spain not only because of Puyol's fantastic header at the 75th minute, but also because it lost its midfield prowess that was so threatening to England and Argentina. Spain had three times the number of attempts at goal than Germany and had dominated the possessions early in the match. Somehow Germany lost the ferocity we saw against Argentina and seemed content to soak up the pressure. The second half was more of the same except that Puyol came unnoticed from behind to head that ball past Neuer's hands. It was not poor defending; Germany had defended solidly. It was a brilliant break for Spain who never stopped trying. 

What failed Germany was it didn't get enough tries. It couldn't penetrate through Casillas' penalty box. Klose and Podolski are excellent strikers and the midfield was good, but they knew they had to be spectacular to win. Khedira, Ozil and expecially Schweinsteiger were unbelievable against Argentina. That didn't happen this time. Schweinsteiger couldn't leave the pitch not because he cursed himself for playing badly. He played well, but he just didn't perform beyond expectations.

It's going to be okay Bastian. I just wished this summer's German fairy tale had continued.

New president, now what?

For the past couple of years, people have always said that a new president will do us a lot of good. Today, after 9 years under the addministration of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, we finally have a new face sitting under the that famed presidential seal.

But the question remains, "Will it change anything ?"

The hopes and dreams of a nation now lie squarely on the new president's shoulders. He has ran on a platform of reform and honest stewardship. Though I did not vote for him and it will probably take a while to appreciate his arrogance, I have accepted him. I do sincerely wish that he would do good on all those promises but I have grown cynical over the years. It seems though the faces and the times change, the end is still the same. I can vividly recall how we were all so glad to have Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo lead us into the new millennium. Yes she probably did us a lot of bad, though her accomplishments in infrastructure and investment did also help us.

I hope that Benigno Aquino III will be a successful president... for my country and for the Filipino people. We're stuck with you for six years so better do something productive while you're there.

Goodbye Japan

The Samurai Blue have been knocked out of the 2010 FIFA World Cup after a 0-0 last 16 game against Paraguay in Pretoria.

I was really hoping that Japan would qualify for the quarterfinals after their strong showing against Denmark. They were impressive against Ghana, both offensively and especially defensively and their game against the Netherlands was a convincing show of skill, even though they lost. However, in hindsight, their last 16 game with Paraguay was an exercise in drudgery and Japan suddenly seemed intimidated. There was no flow, no coherent attack, and no consistent pressure against Paraguay. Too often, Honda was left isolated without any support. Japan was nervous. Defensively they did hold up quite well, but that is just half of the game. They didn't want to take any chances and seemed content on holding a defensive line until Paraguay makes a defensive blunder. But they waited too long. After the a scoreless first half, they seemed to have loosened up and finally livened up, going in some more but again, it was nothing sustained. Sending a second striker in the second half did make things more interesting but by extra time, everyone seemed too tired already. Passes were awfully off target and they just wanted to have the shoot out.

The penalty shoot out is always a heartbreaking affair. I didn't want it to come to a shoot out when the glory of winning or agony of losing rested on the shoulders of a single man. I knew Kawashima was a formidable goalkeeper having stopped Rooney penalty once, but goalkeepers get the least pressure because saves are more an act of God than of man. That unfortunate man whose fate it was to miss the goal was Komano of Japan. Shooting third out of five takers, his shot hit the crossbar and ricocheted up to miss the goal. I feel his anger at himself and his agony of failing his teammates which together with him have come so close to reach their dream. For a team that have lost all their friendlies and were in such a disarray just months ago, they have definitely played well and have reached the last 16 well beyond everybody's expectations. In 2014, I know I will again see that Honda, Okazaki, Kawashima and the next generation of the Japan National Football Team in Brazil.